2024 NFL Super Wild Card Weekend Predictions
It has been five long years since I’ve been able to write an unbiased article with NFL predictions. Being in the league gives you a greater appreciation for the playoffs. They aren’t just important to the fans or the players. The people who work for each team carry it with them as a badge of honor. I was a long-suffering Bucs fan for an 18-year playoff win drought before working for the team and making the playoffs in every year but my first full season in 2019. Thanks to Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, I got to take home some hardware of my own in the form of a Super Bowl win. And every year since, the Buccaneers were crowned NFC South champions. I promise you that every employee of a playoff team beams with pride over having a small part in their organizations success.
Now that I’m away from it, I recognize how special this time of year is. Wild Card games can help create legends. It’s where Eli Manning got his first playoff win on the Giants’ road to taking down the undefeated New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. This postseason’s Super Wild Card Weekend has the potential to be especially, well…special. Detroit is making their playoff return after 30 years against their former quarterback. Rookie phenom CJ Stroud has led the Houston Texans from being bottom-feeders to kicking bottom as champions of the AFC South, with his team hosting the elite Joe Flacco-led Cleveland Browns. Jordan Love gets a chance to win his playoff debut when the Green Bay Packers visit Jerry’s World to duel with Mike McCarthy’s Dallas Cowboys. The Buffalo Bills pulled off an epic comeback win on the road to take the AFC East and earn a home game against the TJ Watt-less Pittsburgh Steelers. Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins will try to get hot again in a frigidly cold Arrowhead Stadium against Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City Chiefs.
There are storylines galore this weekend, and here are my predictions for how these tales will play out. Enjoy Super Wild Card Weekend. Happy Football!
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CLEVELAND BROWNS VS. HOUSTON TEXANS
SATURDAY, JANUARY 13 | 4:30 PM ET
Joe Flacco went from sitting on his couch as a fan, to getting the phone call from Kevin Stefanski’s Browns and stepping up to take the reins of Cleveland’s offense. A once-hated division rival, the Dawg Pound has embraced the elite veteran who has recaptured the magic that made him a Super Bowl champion with the Ravens in 2012.
Adversity has been the name of the game for the Browns this year. They’ve cycled through four different quarterbacks, lost running back Nick Chubb to an ACL injury early in Week 2, and still find themselves in the playoffs at 11-6.
While the offense has found stability under Flacco, it’s been their defense that has clawed their way to the postseason. The Browns’ D touts the fewest yards allowed per game (266.6), and pass rusher Myles Garrett finished the regular season tied for seventh in sacks with 14.
Garrett and the Browns will need to be on their A-game in H-Town, because Texans rookie QB CJ Stroud has been nothing short of spectacular, putting together one of the greatest first seasons of any quarterback in NFL history. Stroud is the third player in the history of the game to lead the NFL in both passing yards per game (273.9) and TD-to-INT ratio (4.6-1) in the same season, following in the footsteps of two GOATs (Joe Montana in 1989, Tom Brady in 2007).
It’s not just Houston’s quarterback that’s cooking after low expectations. Head Coach DeMeco Ryans led the team to a division title in just his first year in the role, with a roster filled to the brim with young players. The receiver room alone has the likes of Tank Dell, Noah Brown, Nico Collins, and John Metchie III, making Stroud’s rookie campaign all the more impressive.
On defense, it’s the Texans’ rush defense that helps put the ball back into their young offense’s hands. Houston ranks sixth in rush defense, allowing 96.6 yards per game. To beat Cleveland, they’ll have to keep the Browns’ running game in check.
With Nick Chubb on IR, Jerome Ford led Cleveland’s backfield in 2023 with 813 yards and four touchdowns. Kareem Hunt also returned to reprise his role as the Dawg Pound’s change-of-pace back. Both have made a huge impact and have helped Joe Flacco recapture the magic in his game. By shutting down the running game, the Texans could put a ton of pressure on the former Super Bowl champion to turn back the clock in a passing game shootout.
PREDICTION:
These two teams’ stories are incredible, and it’s a game where I hate to see either one lose. While the Browns have the better overall defense, it’s the Texans’ ability to stop the run that intrigues me the most. I think Laremy Tunsil and company can keep CJ Stroud upright long enough to make plays for his high-flying offense, where I think Joe Flacco will have to lean on his running game and intermediate routes to control the clock and keep the ball out of Stroud’s hands. While the time machine has favored Joe Cool thus far, I think Houston’s signal caller is special enough to put him back in the DeLorean at 88 miles per hour. Stroud makes more plays and protects the football in a Texans win.
TEXANS 27, BROWNS 20
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MIAMI DOLPHINS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
SATURDAY, JANUARY 13 | 8:00 PM ET
Miami is all about turning up the heat. Whether it’s the warm beaches, the basketball team with that same namesake, hot residents, or the scorching speed of Mike McDaniels’ Miami Dolphins offense, Miami is always ready to melt their competition. This Saturday, however, could prove to be Miami’s greatest challenge. Not only will they have to battle frigid temperatures of 5 degrees with a -11 wind chill, they’ll also have to contend with a team that has ice in their veins come playoff time.
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are having a down year according to the expectations their past success have bestowed upon them. At 11-6 in an AFC West that largely underachieved in 2023, the NFL world expected more from the defending Super Bowl champions. Still, Arrowhead Stadium prepares to host a Dolphins squad that isn’t at the top of their game.
Ending the season with a disappointing home loss to the Buffalo Bills that cost them the AFC East crown, Miami still has one of the league’s most explosive offenses. Tua and company rank first in yards per game (401.3) and second in points per game (29.2). When firing on all cylinders, there isn’t a team in the league that can match their speed and execution. Star wideout Tyreek Hill finished the year with 1,799 receiving yards, which is the seventh-most in a single season in NFL history. But it’s not just Hill that can turn on the burners in South Beach. Raheem Mostert, De’Von Achane and the rest of the Dolphins’ backfield have rushed for 2,308 yards in 2023, adding balance to an offensive attack that has won them games in a variety of ways.
The Dolphins’ defense has also been making a splash as of late. When star cornerback Jalen Ramsey made his healthy return, his presence helped propel Miami’s D to 10th in yards allowed per game (318.3), an impressive feat when you consider the number of times the scoreboard lights up in a Mike McDaniels-coached Dolphins game. But when facing the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and upstart wide receiver Rashee Rice, they’ll have to improve their third-down percentage. As of now, the Dolphins allow third down conversions 36.3% of the time, which is a weakness Andy Reid’s squad will look to exploit.
Speaking of the Chiefs, Kansas City still ranks in the Top 10 in yards per game (ninth, 351.3), which may be surprising given the narrative that’s following this team around. It could be because KC’s stars aren’t shining as bright as they normally do. While Patrick Mahomes has been a perennial MVP candidate each year he’s started in the league, he doesn’t rank in the Top 5 of any passing category this season (sixth in YPG, eighth in TDs, seventh in QBR). Travis Kelce has made a ton of headlines off the field from his relationship with pop icon and worldwide megastar Taylor Swift, and the new-found attention came with high expectations. Unfortunately, Kelce has failed to reach his past levels of play, failing to reach 1,000 yards receiving for the first time since 2015. While he could have reached that milestone if he played in Week 18, Kelce made the call to sit out and give his body some rest before the postseason.
The Chiefs’ defense, however, has stepped up to pick up some of the slack. In a huge improvement from past seasons, Kansas City finished second in yards allowed per game (289.8). They’ve also had a huge boost from their pass rush, as both Chris Jones and George Karlaftis finished the regular season with 10.5 sacks each.
PREDICTION:
So can Miami’s offense begin to catch fire again during a midwestern freeze? While the Dolphins possess one of the most impressive offenses in the history of the league, I don’t think it will be enough to overcome the cold or the ice-water veins of Kansas City’s playmakers. It’s the playoffs; where Mahomes shines. Where Kelce comes alive. Where Andy Reid’s teams produce at extremely high levels. Tyreek Hill may have something to prove as he returns to Arrowhead to face his former team, but Mike McDaniels’ gameplan won’t be able to depend on long-developing routes in this kind of weather, or against a team with a pass rush like the Chiefs. Kansas City holds off the Dolphins and advances to the Divisional Round.
CHIEFS 26, DOLPHINS 21
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PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS. BUFFALO BILLS
MONDAY, JANUARY 15 | 4:30 PM ET
Another year, another Mike Tomlin-led Steelers team with a winning record. His historic 17-year run as Steelers head coach was rumored to be in trouble, but the defensive mastermind and ultimate motivator found a way to get the most out of his underpowered team once again. They will be without the league’s best pass rusher in TJ Watt for this contest, but Pittsburgh is not a stranger to the “next man up” mentality.
Quarterback Mason Rudolph will lead the Steelers’ offense, as hometown guy Kenny Pickett struggled to make an impact in his second year at the helm. To be frank, this offense has had many struggles in 2023. Ranking 25th in yards per game (304.3), the Steelers rely heavily on their defense to keep them in games. And without their best player, that will be a tall task lining up against Josh Allen and the red-hot Buffalo Bills.
Josh Allen and company went into Miami for a must-win game against the Dolphins, and pulled off a miraculous comeback to win 21-14 and secure the AFC East title. Buffalo has been on the verge of greatness for a few seasons now, and they always seem to come up just short. But with their playoff experience and new-found confidence, it looks like the Bills are ready to take the next step. Still, they’ll have to overcome the injury bug this Sunday, as WR Gabe Davis and S Taylor Rapp have been ruled out.
The Steelers will have to control the time of possession to maximize their chances to win. Najee Harris will have to be a huge factor if Pittsburgh wants to pull off the upset. He’s coming off a spectacular regular season, reaching 1,035 yards and eight touchdowns. That’s not too shabby for someone who didn’t have the luxury of playing with a lead much of the year. Buffalo’s rush defense is in the middle of the pack, ranking 15th on the year with 110.6 rush yards allowed per game.
Home-field advantage will be huge. Steelers fans usually travel very well, waving the Terrible Towel proudly inside any stadium in the league, but Bills fans are a rowdy bunch that won’t take too kindly to visitors trying to take over. They believe this is the beginning of a deep playoff run, and if all goes as expected, it should be.
PREDICTION:
There’s something about how the Bills won in Miami last week that feels different. Buffalo has had their backs against the wall the entire last quarter of the season, and they persevered all the way up to the AFC’s number two seed. While the way the Steelers have scratched their way here is impressive, they are no match for the Bills on paper. I think that will translate to the field. Josh Allen should be able to take care of the football without TJ Watt chasing him down on the other side. If he does, Buffalo will handle business at home.
BILLS 31, STEELERS 10
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GREEN BAY PACKERS VS DALLAS COWBOYS
SUNDAY, JANUARY 14 | 4:30 PM ET
“Yeah, here we go!” It’s not just what Dak Prescott shouts before every snap…it’s what football fans everywhere should be shouting for this matchup. While Prescott’s Cowboys look to keep the good times rolling and rid themselves of their sub-par playoff reputation, Jordan Love can take his first step into building his Green Bay legend.
It was a stellar first season as the starter for Love, finishing second in passing touchdowns (32) and seventh in passing yards (4,159). That’s without consistent big-name targets that predecessors like Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre had. He led the Packers to three straight victories to end the year and get Green Bay into the playoffs. Now, he’ll face his biggest test yet - a date with the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium.
Love finished second in passing touchdowns to Dallas’ Dak Prescott, who is having the best season of his career. 36 touchdown passes (first), second in QBR (72.6), and third in passing yards (4,516), the emergence of CeeDee Lamb as his unquestioned playmaker has lifted Dak’s play in the face of a lot of past criticism. While Cowboys teams over the last few decades have faltered when it mattered most, this team looks to be putting all the right pieces together. But as history dictates, games with the Packers can get a little funky.
In fact, it was Mike McCarthy’s Packers squad on the other side of the field when Dallas suffered heartbreak at Lambeau Field in the form of a Dez Bryant catch that was ruled incomplete after review in the 2014 Divisional Round. That ruling ousted the Cowboys from the playoffs and has lived in infamy ever since.
Now, McCarthy looks to remedy that for fans in Dallas who still have a sour taste in their mouths. In his fourth season as the Cowboys’ head coach, expectations are high for this squad to make a long playoff run. They certainly have the firepower to do so, ranking fifth in yards per game (371.6). Even the defense has some scoring firepower, having taken five interceptions back for a touchdown this year, all by DB DaRon Bland. Micah Parsons also continues to wreak havoc with 14 sacks on the season, creating a recipe that could foil the great play of a young quarterback like Jordan Love.
For the Packers to have a shot at the upset, they’ll have to keep CeeDee Lamb under wraps and put pressure on Prescott. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 7.3 yards per completion against Green Bay’s secondary, which is a number they’ll have to improve in Arlington on Sunday. Pass rushers Rashan Gary and Preston Smith will have to be active in getting to the quarterback and provide consistent pressure to give their offense enough chances to hang.
PREDICTION:
Jordan Love is going to be special. Will his legend begin here? It could. That all depends on whether his middle-of-the-pack defense can make enough plays against an extremely motivated Dallas squad that is surely tired of the can’t-win-the-big-one talk. Green Bay Head Coach Matt LaFleur’s plan has worked out extremely well this season, but it will take a lot to keep up with Dallas. If Dak Prescott wants to cement himself as an unquestionable star in the Big D, this is one he needs to win. I think the Cowboys get it done, but the Packers keep it closer than a lot of people expect.
COWBOYS 38, PACKERS 29
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LOS ANGELES RAMS VS DETROIT LIONS
SUNDAY, JANUARY 14 | 8:00 PM ET
This might be the first round’s best game and best story. Matt Stafford vs. Jared Goff. Two quarterbacks traded for each other after their franchises sought a fresh start. Detroit traded Stafford looking to give him a new home, as Dan Campbell’s Lions didn’t want him sitting through a rebuild yet again in his career. The Rams traded Goff after doubts crept in that he couldn’t get them over the hump to win a championship, and the Lions needed a veteran presence to either lead them to win or falter to gain draft capital.
Stafford and the Rams ended up winning the Super Bowl in their first year together; a feat that Lions fans embraced and cheered, as they finally saw their guy on top of the football world. Goff took a couple of years but has resurrected his career and silenced doubters, bringing the Lions to a home playoff appearance for the first time in over 30 years. The Motor City is fully on board the Goff mobile and will go wherever he and Dan Campbell take them.
Both quarterbacks have weapons galore. Stafford’s Rams with Cooper Kupp, rookie phenom Puka Nacua (who just set the rookie receiving yards record), and Kyren Williams. Goff’s squad has the Sun God, Amon-Ra St. Brown, along with a tandem of stellar backs in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. We’ll see if star rookie tight end Sam LaPorta is healthy enough to suit up this Sunday after suffering an ill-timed injury in Week 18.
Each team ranks in the Top 10 of total offense in 2023. The Lions are third with 394.8 yards per game and 58 total touchdowns, while the Rams battled through injuries to rank seventh with 359.3 yards per game and 44 touchdowns of their own. The Lions and Rams are 19th and 20th respectively in total defense, which means we could be in store for a good old-fashioned shootout at Ford Field.
Another intriguing aspect of this game is the head coaches. Rams Head Coach Sean McVay is known for his playcalling and superior knowledge of X’s and O’s. Lions Head Coach Dan Campbell, while smart in his own right, is regarded as a master motivator who consistently finds ways to get the most out of his club, regardless of the circumstances. It’s how he’s turned the Lions around in just two seasons, after being one of the league’s worst teams in his first year with the club.
PREDICTION:
This is going to be a fun one to watch. I think the emotion and the moment make this a perfect moment for the city of Detroit. Their longtime beloved quarterback is making his return as the opponent, and he’ll bring his A-game, but this is the Lions’ time. Both teams are evenly matched, but it’s the fans at Ford Field, and the passion of the players and coaches, that will lead their pride to victory.
LIONS 35, RAMS 32
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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
MONDAY, JANUARY 15 | 8:00 PM ET
Oh boy. What happened for us to get to this point? The Philadelphia Eagles, once thought to be a shoe-in to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl for a second straight year, have now lost five of their last six games. Their star quarterback, Jalen Hurts? Hurt. Their star wide receiver, AJ Brown? Also hurt. Their fans? You guessed it! HURT…well, emotionally speaking.
After months of hype, Eagles Head Coach Nick Sirianni’s team has nearly completed an epic collapse. To avoid that from happening, they’ll need to defeat the also-struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road in the Wild Card Round.
The Buccaneers came into 2023 with the lowest of expectations pressed upon them. After starting hot in the first month of the season, the team quickly cooled off in the middle of the year. They then rallied to win five of their last six to win the NFC South and make the playoffs for a fourth straight season. Baker Mayfield has played the best football of his career this year, but the Buccaneers offense has failed to produce a touchdown in their last two games. Luckily, their defense is leading the way behind the play of First-Team All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. They recorded a shutout in Week 18, albeit against the objectively terrible Carolina Panthers.
Neither team has a ton of momentum at this juncture, but something has to give in the playoffs. In terms of each team’s strengths, the Eagles have the superior rushing attack, especially in short-yardage situations. Whether it’s the Brotherly Shove, DeAndre Swift getting to the edge, or Jalen Hurts tucking it and running, it’s hard to stop Philly when they get the run game going. Vita Vea is Tampa Bay’s big run stuffer at the tackle position, but if the Eagles get past the first line of defense, it will depend on how well Tampa Bay’s tackling will be. While Lavonte David is among the most consistent linebackers in league history, his middle linebacker counterpart Devin White is inconsistent at best. Unless he is rushing the passer, White tends to miss important tackles or get lost in pass coverage. He’s been improving since getting benched earlier in the season, but he needs to be at his best for the Bucs to have a chance.
On the other side, the Bucs are a passing team that wants to keep the game balanced with the run. The problem they’ve often run into is that there aren’t enough running lanes for Rachaad White to truly take over, and they don’t get enough passing production outside of future Hall of Famer Mike Evans and fellow 1,000-yard receiver Chris Godwin. If they are going to win against the Eagles, receivers need to get separation in the middle of the field to give Baker Mayfield some easy throws. Rookie wide receiver Trey Palmer and young tight end Cade Otton both need to come alive to help the cause.
PREDICTION:
In a game where both teams are coming in lacking momentum, home-field advantage may be paramount. Injuries will also play a huge factor. I expect Jalen Hurts to play, but as of writing this, he still hasn’t thrown a football since his injury. AJ Brown also has not practiced. Those two make up the bulk of the Eagles’ offense, and I’m not sure Philly can dig their way out. While they aren’t playing their best football, Baker Mayfield and the Bucs are coming into the playoffs motivated, feeling like they’re being underlooked. If the Eagles have their stars healthy, it will be a much bigger toss-up. But knowing what I know now, give me the Bucs to get it done and avenge their early-season loss to the Eagles at home.
BUCCANEERS 24, EAGLES 18